Eagles Playoff Scenarios

The fact that I even have to write an article describing the different things that need to happen in order for the Eagles to make the playoffs is really pretty pathetic in itself.  They need this team to lose, that team to win, this team to beat that team in this week.  It's all pretty confusing and tiresome and it's overall extremely frustrating.  But I have broken down the scenarios for the Eagles to make the playoffs into two simple categories: division and wild card.  I will try my best to break down each scenario as clearly as possible and try to explain exactly what needs to happen for the Eagles to reach the post season.

Division

Scenario #1: Both Giants and Cowboys Win
Tonight the Cowboys will travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Bucaneers.  If they win, coupled with a Giants win over the Redskins win tomorrow, the Eagles can't win the division.  With victories this weekend, the Giants and Cowboys would both be 8-6, and by virtue of the fact that they play each other in the final game of the regular season, one of the two teams will get 9 wins.  Unfortunately, even if the Eagles win their remaining three games, the best they can finish with is 8 wins.  Wins by both the Cowboys and Giants this weekend, means no division title for the Birds.

Scenario #2: Cowboys Win, Giants Lose
Scenario number 2 involves the Cowboys beating the Bucs, and the Giants losing to the Skins.  If that were to happen, then we would need to beat the Cowboys next week, the Giants to lose next week to Jets, and then the Giants to beat the Cowboys in the final game of the regular season.  This scenario isn't too far fetched when you think about it, and is probably the most likely to happen.  As much as I would love for the Cowboys to lose to the Bucs tonight, I don't see it happening.  The Bucs are currently in the midst of a 7 game losing streak including an ugly 41-14 defeat last week to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.  Simply put the Cowboys should beat Tampa.  But the Giants have a much tougher game against the Skins.  Although Eli played out of his mind against Dallas on Sunday night, look at what the Redskins did against the Patriots.  They played them tough and lost by a close final of 34-27.  And a division game is never easy so the Giants very easily could fall to the Skins.  Then we would beat the Boys like earlier this year, the Jets, who would be coming off a crushing defeat to the Eagles would be desperate, and they would beat the Giants, and then we beat the Skins, the Giants beat the Cowboys, and we are in.  I know that's a lot of if's, but the importance will be to take it one game at a time.

Scenario #3: Cowboys Lose, Giants Win
You just flip flop teams in this scenario.  Coming off a loss to the Bucs, we would obviously still have to beat the Cowboys next week.  But in this scenario we would need the Cowboys to beat the Giants in the final week.  The Giants in this scenario beat the Skins and then drop their final 2 games to the Jets and Boys respectively.

Scenario #4: Cowboys And Giants Lose
Given the fact that they face each other in the final week, both teams can't lose out.  But if the Giants and Cowboys both lose their next 2 games, the best either team can finish will be with 8 wins.  And if the Eagles win out, they have the tie breaker which will give them the division crown.

Wild Card

Scenario #1: Detroit Loses Out And Eagles Win Out
If Detroit loses out and the Eagles win out, the Birds can nab the final wild card spot.  This scenario is not too crazy.  The Lions remaining schedule includes a tough matchup this week at the Raiders, next week at home vs the Chargers, and a tough tough road game in the final week against the Green Bay Packers.  The Eagles would also need the Bears to lose 2 of their last 3.  In the end, the Bears, Lions, and Eagles would all be 8-8.  According to Tim McManus of phillysportsdialy.com,

"It's dependent on a several team tie going on in which it would come down to strength of victory. Undecided who wins that."

In addition to Tim McManus helping me sort through this playoff confusion, I also had the help of one of my twitter followers @CrazyCurtPhilly helping to uncloud the confusion.

"If Lions lose out and Eagles win out they both have 6-6 Conf record.  Both teams would be 2-3 in common opponents Bears, Falcons, Cowboys, 49ers.  It then gets convoluted after common opponents.  Then its strength of schedule which is combined win% off all teams beaten.  The Lions have wins over TB, KC, MIN (x2), DAL, CHI, DEN, CAR, and the Eagles have wins over STL, WAS (x2), DAL(x2), NYG, MIA, NYJ.  If you look (current) combined win% of the teams each team has beat Eagles hold slight edge over Lions 3307/ 3000."

So basically it's confusing and unlikely, but the Eagles still have a shot at both the wild card and division.  Of course for any of these scenarios to work the Eagles have to win out.  They have to beat the Jets this weekend, the Cowboys next week, and the Skins in the final week of the regular season.

It's unlikely but the Eagles have to take everything one game at a time.  Crazier things have happened and it will be interesting to see how everything plays out.