The Cole Hamels Conundrum

A couple weeks ago, the Phillies avoided arbitration with Cole Hamels by signing to him a one year deal worth 15 million dollars.  The deal is a bargain for now, but the Phillies executives know that Hamels is going to want big money in the near future.  In fact, this spring the Phillies front office will officially begin talks with Hamels on a long term deal.  The question that I'm posing is should the Phillies lock up Hamels long term?  Is it the right move in the long run?

In my opinion, Hamels is going to want Cliff Lee money.  A 5-7 year deal ranging anywhere from 100-150 million.  For the sake of my argument, let's say the Phillies sign Hamels to a 5 year deal worth right around 120 million.  That would mean that in the 2013 season the Phillies would be paying close to 70 million dollars for three pitchers.  (25 million for Lee, 20 million for Halladay, *predicted 25 million for Hamels)

70 million dollars is a lot of money.  In fact 70 million is more than the 2011 opening day payrolls of the Padres, Diamondbacks, Nationals, Marlins, Athletics, Pirates, Indians, Royals, and Rays.  Simply put the Phillies would be paying more for 3 pitchers than other clubs do for entire teams.

Locking up Hamels to a long term deal not only sounds bad on paper, but it will also prohibit the Phillies from making any significant changes to their lineup in the future.

Kevin Cooney of the Bucks County Courier Times wrote a similar piece on Hamels last week.  Cooney had this to say on Hamels' potential long term deal and what it would mean in the future:


"There’s also this to consider: The club already has six players who will make north of $10 million in 2013 — Lee ($25 million), Halladay and Ryan Howard ($20 million), Utley ($15 million), Jonathan Papelbon ($13 million) and Jimmy Rollins ($11 million).  That’s not even counting Pence, who will be in his final year of arbitration and likely will reach that $10 million club both this season and next. Figure Pence around $13 million for 2013 and the total payroll would be at $117 million — for just seven players, and without Hamels."

Cooney went on to talk about how if the Phillies were to give Hamels a deal around 20-25 million per year, they wouldn't have much room to sign Hunter Pence who will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and Shane Victorino who will be a free agent after this season.

I think it's kind of a moot point to talk about this mainly because Cole Hamels is one of the greatest pitchers in Phillies franchise history.  He won the 2008 World Series MVP, and he has the potential to carry this team back to the promised land in the future.  Also you have to factor Ruben Amaro Jr. into this equation.  Ruben absolutely loves pitching, and like it or not, he will find a way to get a deal done with Hamels.

But are the Three Aces the answer?  Maybe, just maybe, the Phillies should save their money and look to spend it elsewhere.  But to pass up on a talent like Cole Hamels will not be an easy decision for the Phillies front office.