Phillies: Sell Or Stay?

Phillies fans were somewhat hopeful going into the 2012 season.  Although the Phils were coming off an early playoff exit, they still had managed to win a franchise high 102 wins in the 2011 season.  And even with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard sidelined with injuries to begin the year, nobody could have predicted a dreadful 39-51 start to the season.

As of right now the Phillies are dead last in the N.L. East, 14 games behind the division leading Nationals.  The Phillies are in a little better shape in the Wild Card standings, where they are 11 games behind the Braves and Pirates who are both 49-39.  With 72 games left in the season, the Phillies will have to go on a serious tear in the remainder of the season to have any chance at playing in October.

With the July 31 trade deadline looming, it's soon going to be decision time for the Phillies front office.  Should they re-sign Cole Hamels or trade him?  Should they trade Shane Victorino or Hunter Pence for prospects?

If I were Ruben, I would hold off on all moves until July 30th.  If on July 30th the Phillies are still double digit games back of both the division and wild card, I would then go ahead and trade Hamels and Victorino.  I would trade Hamels with the hope that he would give the Phillies a fair chance at signing him in the off season.

But if the Phillies are 9 games back of the division lead and say 6 or 7 of a wild card spot, why sell the team?  If the Phillies are winning games and making strides to playing at a high level, why not keep the team together and go for it?

Ruben has to have a certain amount of games in the back of his mind in which he will either decide to sell or stay.  He also has to judge as to whether he thinks that the team is legitimately getting better and capable of making a playoff run.

As of right now the Pirates and Braves (the two Wild Card leaders) are on pace to win around 91 games.  To reach 91 wins, the Phillies would have to go 52-20 in their remaining 72 games, good for about a .720 winning percentage.

I know it's a long shot, but the Phillies are finally starting to get healthy.  They get Roy Halladay back tomorrow night, and they have 9 games left against the Braves.  Also the Phillies also usually get hot late in the season.

The following stats are the records of the Phils in the last two months of the season dating back to 2007.

2007: 33-23
2008: 33-21
2009: 34-27
2010: 41-17
2011: 34-21

A long shot? Yea, no doubt.  But keep in mind that the Phillies are fully healthy and this is the first time in MLB history that 5 teams make the playoffs from each league.  Ultimately it will be up to Ruben Amaro Jr. to decide as whether or not the Phillies are capable of making a run to the playoffs.