Opening Day is less than 24 hours away! Today, I will bringing you a complete breakdown (last years basic stats, my projections, a scouting report, and what to be concerned about for each of the starting five for the Phightins!) of the Phillies 2012 Starting Rotation! Let's get started!
Opening Day Starting Rotation:
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee
3. Vance Worley
4. Cole Hamels
5. Joe Blanton
Roy Halladay:
2011 Stats:
Wins: 19
Losses: 6
ERA: 2.35
Games Started: 32
Complete Games: 8
2012 Projections:
Wins: 20
Losses: 7
ERA: 2.42
Complete Games: 9
2012 Projections:
Wins: 20
Losses: 7
ERA: 2.42
Complete Games: 9
Scouting Report:
Halladay is a two time Cy young award winner almost winning his third last season, he is 8 time all star and has been an all star both seasons he has been a Phillie. He is what you call a workhorse, he has pitched over 220 innings every season for the last 6 seasons, including 250 innings two years ago, his first year with the Phillies. He has one of the best strikeout walk ratios over the last couple seasons. He does not allow many homeruns only giving up 10 home runs last year down from 24 in the 2010 season. Most outs that are in play outs occur as ground-ball outs and he knows how to attack hitters with strikes, he also makes it difficult for hitters to run up his pitch count. He has 35 complete games over the last four seasons. Halladay has a four pitch repertoire containing, a sinker,cutter,a curveball, and a splitter/change. His sinker has been around 92 mph over his career. His cutter is one of the best in the game and comes in about a half a mile or a mile per hour slower then his sinker. His changeup is usually been in the mid eighties, though during the 2011 season, the gap seemed to grow even larger at almost an impressive nine miles per hour slower. Halladay's curve is usually in the high 70's around 76-79 mph. Halladay has great comand with all his pitches, and has great stamina being able to throw many complete games this season. Be sure to watch every game you can if he is pitching because you are going to be watching a future HOF member at work.
Concerns:
There is a reason they call Roy Halladay "Doc", thats exactly what he is when he steps onto that mound. Over his career he has an amazing win-loss record of 188-92 over his 14 year career and 66 complete games. There is no concerns for Halladay in any of the departments, injury,ERA, and etc. No concerns for Halladay this year.
Cliff Lee:
2011 Stats:
Wins: 17
Losses: 8
ERA: 2:40
Complete Games: 6
2012 Projections:
Wins: 18
Losses: 9
ERA: 2.39
Complete Games: 5
Scouting Report:
Cliff Lee also has a 4-pitch repertoire like his teammate Roy Halladay. Lee has a fastball which has been clocked in the low to mid 90s, an outstanding cutter usually in the high 80s, a mid 70s curveball, and a great change-up usually in the low 80s. Lee is known for his outstanding command on his 1st pitch strike percentage which is above 70% which is outstanding and having a swing and a miss rate around 10%. Here is an AL scout assessment on Lee: "He's a hard-nosed pitcher who expects to go nine innings every time he pitches. He has the ability to pitch back to front [part of the plate] as well as side to side. He has pitchability more than overwhelming stuff, as he's capable of using his mix to a lot of locations in the zone and sequence [of pitches] is not at all to be expected." (qoute courtesy of http://www.dallasnews.com/)
Concerns:
The only concern for Lee is leaving the ball in the zone too much, last year he gave up many hits because he left the ball in the zone too much. This is the reason, that will be one of the very few reasons Lee will have bad games now and then. This is not a major concern either though so I would still expect Cliff to be an elite pitcher as he has been the last 4 years.
Vance Worley:
2011 Stats:Wins: 11
Losses: 3
ERA: 3.01
Games Started: 21
Complete Games: 1
2012 Projections:
Wins: 13
Losses: 5
ERA: 3.21
Games Started: 29
Complete Games: 2
Scouting Report:
Worley has a nice repertoire of pitches, not as great as Halladay's,Lee's,or Hamel's but a pretty nice repertoire for a 2nd year starter. Worley last year surprised the Phillies and the MLB going 12-4 last season in 25 games. Worley's fastball is around an average MLB fastball in the high 80s to low 90s and features some good secondary pitches. His secondary pitches contain, a cutter, a curve, a slider, and a change-up. He may wow you now and then with some of his pitches but don't expect anything amazing with his pitches. Worley does have great command for a 24 year old pitcher, he also can change speeds on his pitches very well and is able to move his pitches up, down,left, and right. He throws strikes and you will find him ahead in the count most of the time. He is also like pitching great Greg Maddux in a way by have three variations of his fastball but none of them are considered straight fastballs. Worley does not have a pitch right now that would be considered a "put away pitch" but it is probably safe to say he's trying to find one. Worley loves throwing his fastball, last year through his first 6 starts he threw his fastball 65% of the time, that is a very high percentage and is very dangerous especially at the MLB level. Watch for Worley to throw a little less of his fastball this year but still throw it alot and use it effectively.
Concern:
The major concern with Worley is his fastball as I said above, if Worley is able to throw his fastball less and use his secondary pitches more effectively he should be good to go this season. Worley should be able to have a decent season this year, I wouldn't expect anything spectacular this season but nothing shorter than at least 10 wins.
Cole Hamels:
2011 Stats:
Losses: 9
ERA: 2.79
Game Started: 31
Complete Games: 3
2012 Projections:
Wins: 18
Losses: 6
ERA: 2.49
Complete Games: 4
Scouting Report:
Cole Hamels is entering his age 28 season, its amazing to think he's already been a Phillie for 6 years entering his 7th season. Hamels was nothing short of amazing last year, even though his record might not showing it only winning 14 wins and having 9 losses, Hamels did not get any run support during many of his starts last year, if he would have gone run support he would have won 16-18 games easily. Expect the same out of Hamels this year as he should win 16-18 games easily this season. His ERA showed his improvement from the 2010 season in which he had an ERA of 3.09 . It might only be a .30 of a difference but every point of a ERA counts. Hamels a nice repertoire of pitches containing a fastball which is in the high 80s to low 90s, he has one of the best if not the best change-up in the game that is usually in the low 80s. He also throws a curve-ball which is usually in the mid 70s and a cutter in which he recently added to his repertoire, his cutter is usually in the high 80s and low 90s.
Note: Hamels is going into his contract season, he is also a favorite to win this years NL Cy Young award.
Concerns:
Like Halladay and Lee, threre is not much concern with Hamels, if anything it will be if he leaves his fastball over the middle of the plate or his curve ball hanging over the plate. Another thing to watch with Hamels is his mental ability to forget about hits and homeruns. In 2009, Hamels had his worst career season because of his mental focus, the last two seasons he has shown he could stay mentally tough. Hamels should have another great season statistically and mentally.
Joe Blanton:
2011 Stats:Wins: 1
Losses: 2
ERA: 5.01
Games Started: 8
Complete Games: 0
2012 Projections:
Wins: 10
Losses: 8
ERA: 4.53
Complete Games: 0
Scouting Report:
Blanton is going into his 31 year old season, he's a former 1st round pick in 2002 out of University of Kentucky, and is going into his 10th major league season; he was traded to the Phillies in 2008 and was solid when he first got here but has been ok the last three seasons. Blanton does know how to throw strikes though and has what experts call a very compact delivery. He throws a league average fastball which is in the high 80s to low 90s range and will throw it on both sides of a plate, he also has a slider which is usually in the low 80s, a curve in the mid 70s and a change-up in the low 80s. Over the last two seasons he was showing a cutter now and then which was in the high 80s. His two best pitches have been his slider and change-up. He is known as a fly-ball pitcher but is prone to giving up the long ball as he has shown with his time with the Phillies. Though he still has some problems now and then Blanton is a league average 3rd or 4th starter but in this rotation he is a 5th starter and when Blanton is on his game, he is a solid 5th starter for our Phillies.
Concern:
There is some concern coming into this season with his injury last season, seeing if he will be able to come back and be a pitcher the Phillies could rely on every fifth day. Another concern is his ability to give up the long ball over the last 3 seasons with the Phillies, Blanton has allowed 62 home runs. If Blanton can not hold down the fort every fifth day watch for long reliever Kyle Kendrick to take over in the fifth spot of the rotation.
Overall :
Last year the Phillies rotation was the best in the majors, I would not expect anything less than that this year. The Phillies starting pitching won over 70 games last season, I would definetaly expect between 65 and 70 again this season. They will need Worley and Blanton to step it up this year, since the Marlins and Nationals have gotten more talented and better, the NL East will be one of the toughest if not the toughest in the NL. I would not be surprised if Halladay, Lee and Hamels combine for 40-50 wins this season. The starting rotation will be holding down the fort this year as the Phillies offense is not as strong and powerful as it would be with Utley and Howard. But as a fellow fan, all we can do is sit back and watch this rotation do the best they can do. Go Phillies!
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